Tuesday, April 1, 2008

2025-The Magic Number May Be Reached May 6

According to DNC rules whomever makes it to 2025 delegates, wins the nomination. Neither Clinton or Obama can make it to that number with pledged delegates, they must rely on the Super Delegates or unpledged delegates. Maybe Super Delegates are unpledged, but many have sure committed to a candidate. Hillary because of her own and her husband's long association in the Washington political process have made many loyal political friends. Barack had to build new political associations from the scratch because he is new to Washington. It has been an uphill battle, but he has pulled within about 34 delegates of Clinton in Super Delegates. Most of the difference is her lead among DNC party officials. Apparently most of the remaining Super Delegates are waiting for the outcomes of the remaining elections. Most of the political pundits have come to the conclusion that Clinton can't win on pledged delegates. Obama has the clear lead of about 167 delegates. He also leads in the total vote count by another substantial number. Senator Clinton has said that pledged delegates don't need to vote for who they are pledged for. Technically she is correct, but delegates are elected on the basis of loyalty to their candidate. It is very unlikely they would change their vote. Why would Hillary make such an odd statement? I believe in an act of desperation, it is to give her supporters a reason to stay with her, and to keep the Super Delegates in check. So far that is working. While they are on hold, she believes that she must go very negative on Barack, and she has. I believe that worked for her in Texas and Ohio. New polls out indicate that Hillary's negative ratings have risen significantly while Barack's have remained about the same. It is uncertain that her huge embellishments of that 1996 Bosnia trip have been factored in. Going negative has helped Clinton in the short term, but it appears she may pay the price in the long term. In conclusion we are going to watch the elections play out to June 3 unless the Super Delegates decide to pick a candidate. It has been reported by Ed Schultz of the Ed Shultz Radio show that some super delegates have been strong armed by the Clintons to hold off committing to Obama. That may buy the Clintons some more time, but that will not affect the final outcome. I believe that will happen after North Carolina on May 6. Barack will be within 200 delegates of winning and I believe the Super Delegates will take him over the top to win the Democratic Presidential nomination! Yes, We Can....

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